Critics of open scoring in mixed martial arts often point to the fact fighters that know they are winning will use that knowledge to coast to victory which will lead to boring fights. However data from jurisdictions that use open scoring do not support this view. Further data has now been published in a study showing fighters that are ahead do not ‘coast’ to victory.
In the recent study, titled Outcome certainty in MMA: Does knowledge of the score influence fighter behavior?, the author drilled through all UFC events held from January 30, 2016 through June 30, 2023.
Although the UFC has never used open scoring the author (Paul Gift who is an economist and former MMA official) selected bouts where all three judges unanimously scored the bout 20-18 heading into the final round and contrasted these with bouts going into the final round with split scoring by the judges. The theory being that fighters should have a strong sense that they are winning in the former category even though there is no open scoring.
Gift then reviewed and contrasted the outcome of the final round between these categories of bouts. in short he notes the data does not suppor the fear that a leading fighter coasts to victory and provides the following conclusion:
…it appears that fighters who are ahead on the scorecards do not tend to change their behavior along 11 key performance metrics when scoring information is made public. For MMA promoters whose business is selling tickets and attracting viewers and sponsors, these findings may help address the principal concern with an open scoring system – fighters in the lead do not appear to coast to victory. But trailing fighters do appear to change their behavior with respect to takedowns and submission attempts. While the volume in which they throw and connect with strikes does not change, they attempt and land fewer takedowns, perhaps recognizing the need to finish the fight in the final round and therefore subtly shifting attention towards a possible knockout since KO/TKOs are three times more likely to be initiated from standing positions relative to the ground.
The full abstract reads as follows:
The athletic commissions from two states have approved the use and studied the impact of open scoring in mixed martial arts (MMA) with two key limitations: (1) they only observe fight outcomes and (2) promoters voluntarily opt in to open scoring treatment status. This paper proposes an analysis of open scoring in the observational setting of Ultimate Fighting Championship events where more granular measures of fighter performance are available. Utilizing known judge scorecards, a model to proxy the level of certainty in the bout outcome heading into the third round of each fight, and detailed fighter performance statistics, this paper examines the effect of knowledge of the likely outcome on fighter behavior in the last round of an MMA fight. Concerns that fighters with the lead will stop engaging or try to “coast” to victory appear unwarranted. Results instead suggest that trailing fighters slightly adjust their behavior, moving away from takedowns and late-stage submission attempts.
Combat Sports Law 